Forecasting Farm Produce Inflation in Nigeria
), Anas Ibrahim(2), Babafemi Daniel Ogunbona(3), Umar Adamu Muhammad(4),
(1) Department of Mathematics, Adeyemi Federal University of Education, Ondo, Nigeria
(2) Department of Mathematics, Adeyemi Federal University of Education, Ondo, Nigeria
(3) Department of Mathematics, Adeyemi Federal University of Education, Ondo, Nigeria
(4) Department of Statistics, Bayero University, Kano
Corresponding Author
Abstract
Given the increasing costs of agricultural products, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive analysis of inflation in farm produce in Nigeria. Effective policies must be developed that account for the overall price increases over time. This paper emphasizes the significance of price forecasting for agricultural products and seeks to statistically validate predictions for key crops in 2025, utilizing time series data from January 2009 to September 2024. Results were derived using univariate ARIMA modelling techniques. The study shows that the ARIMA model serves as a reliable forecasting tool, with practical models indicating price predictions for 2025. The low values of Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) further affirm the accuracy of these forecasts
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DOI: 10.56534/acjpas.v4i1.136
DOI (PDF): https://doi.org/10.56534/acjpas.v4i1.136.g53
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